Is Amazon (AMZN) a Good Investment? AWS Growth & Price Prediction 2027–2030

While Microsoft bet heavily on a single AI partner in OpenAI, Amazon has spread its chips across the table. It holds up to $33 billion in commitments to Anthropic, participated in a $50 billion OpenAI funding round, and is simultaneously building its own Trainium chips to compete with Nvidia directly, a three-way hedge no other company in this series has placed at this scale.

The table below shows our year-end price scenarios from 2027 through 2035, measured against AMZN's recent price of $250.00. Amazon's most recently reported earnings beat was overwhelmingly a paper gain from revaluing its Anthropic stake rather than operating performance, so our model looks through that one-time item and anchors to consensus operating EPS estimates instead.

A Three-Way Hedge on the AI Race

Most companies in this series picked a lane in the AI infrastructure race. Amazon picked three. Through AWS, it is both a landlord renting out compute to AI labs and, increasingly, an equity investor in two of the largest ones, while also racing to build its own competitive chips so it depends on Nvidia less over time.

That strategy has produced an unusually tangled set of financial relationships. Amazon's own Q2 2026 earnings beat consensus estimates by more than 200%, but the overwhelming majority of that beat, $53.4 billion of $62.6 billion in net income, came from a non-operating gain tied to revaluing Amazon's stake in Anthropic, not from selling more cloud capacity or packages.

Understanding Amazon today means separating that kind of paper gain from the AWS growth that actually drives the long-term thesis.

The Anthropic and OpenAI Bets, Side by Side

Amazon's relationship with Anthropic has deepened dramatically through 2026, built around both equity and a massive committed spending relationship that runs in the opposite direction.

• The equity stake: Amazon has committed up to $33 billion to Anthropic in total, combining $8 billion invested between 2023 and 2025 with a fresh $5 billion in April 2026 and up to $20 billion more tied to commercial milestones, priced at a $350 billion pre-money valuation.
• The spending commitment: In return, Anthropic has committed to spend more than $100 billion on AWS over the next decade, covering current and future generations of Amazon's Trainium chips and Graviton processors, with access to up to 5 gigawatts of compute capacity.
• Project Rainier: The physical anchor of this relationship is an AWS compute cluster in Indiana built around more than 1 million Trainium2 chips, reportedly an $11 billion infrastructure investment, designed specifically to train and run Anthropic's Claude models at scale.
• A parallel OpenAI bet: Separately, Amazon participated in a $50 billion funding round for OpenAI in February 2026 at a $730 billion valuation, meaning Amazon now has meaningful financial exposure to both of the AI industry's most prominent labs rather than choosing a single partner the way Microsoft has.

CEO Andy Jassy has been explicit about the strategic logic behind Trainium: AWS wants Anthropic's commitment to prove its custom silicon can train frontier models, giving every other AWS customer evidence that Trainium is a credible, lower-cost alternative to Nvidia GPUs.

Q2 2026 Results: AWS Accelerates, But Read the Fine Print

Amazon's second-quarter 2026 results, reported July 30, showed genuine operating strength underneath the headline-grabbing EPS number. Total revenue reached $200.6 billion, with operating income of $27.5 billion.

• AWS acceleration: AWS revenue grew 37% year over year to $42.2 billion, an acceleration from recent quarters, generating $16.6 billion of Amazon's total $27.5 billion in operating income, roughly 60% of company-wide profit from a segment that represents a much smaller share of total revenue.
• The EPS headline, explained: Reported EPS of $5.75 crushed the $1.82 consensus, but $53.4 billion of Amazon's $62.6 billion in net income came from non-operating gains, mainly the markup on Amazon's Anthropic stake as the startup's valuation climbed, not from stronger underlying sales or margins.
• Guidance: Management guided third-quarter net sales to $197 billion to $202 billion, implying 9% to 12% year-over-year growth, with analysts modeling AWS growth in the 30% to 35% range for the quarter.
• Capital spending: Management put full-year 2026 capital spending at roughly $220 billion, overwhelmingly directed toward AWS capacity and AI infrastructure.

Amazon is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on October 29, 2026, after this article was written, with analysts forecasting EPS near $1.96 to $2.03, a figure that strips out the kind of one-time gains that distorted the prior quarter.

Is Amazon a Good Investment? Three Pillars to Weigh

Amazon's case rests on three pillars, each with a real counterweight worth understanding before buying.

• AWS's growth has genuinely reaccelerated. A jump to 37% growth, up from the low-to-mid 30s in recent quarters, suggests Amazon's AI infrastructure investments are translating into real customer demand, not just capacity that sits unused.
• The dual AI lab strategy diversifies risk, but also doubles exposure. Betting on both Anthropic and OpenAI reduces Amazon's dependence on any single lab's success the way Microsoft depends on OpenAI, but it also means Amazon's AI investment returns hinge on two separate, expensive bets succeeding rather than one.
• Capital spending at this scale demands sustained AWS growth to justify it. At roughly $220 billion annually, Amazon's capex requires AWS and its AI-related revenue to keep compounding at a high rate for years; any deceleration would make that spending look premature in hindsight.

The balance sheet can absorb this level of investment. Amazon generates substantial free cash flow from its retail and advertising businesses alongside AWS, though the company pays no dividend, directing that cash instead toward infrastructure, Anthropic and OpenAI stakes, and share buybacks.

AMZN Stock Price Prediction 2027: Does 37% AWS Growth Hold?

2027 is the year that determines whether Amazon's recent AWS acceleration to 37% proves durable or was a temporary spike tied to a handful of large AI customer ramps. Our base case assumes earnings per share reaches the consensus estimate of roughly $10.59, consistent with continued strong AWS growth moderating only slightly from today's pace.

At a 24 times multiple, in line with Amazon's current forward valuation, the base target is $254, about 2% above today's price. The $310 bull case assumes AWS growth holds near 35% or better for the full year. The $190 bear case assumes growth decelerates meaningfully faster than expected, raising hard questions about whether $220 billion in annual capex was appropriately sized.

AMZN Stock Price Prediction 2028: Testing the Anthropic Commitment at Scale

By 2028, Anthropic's committed $100 billion in AWS spending over the coming decade should be meaningfully visible in AWS's own revenue figures, assuming Anthropic's own growth and fundraising keep pace with its ambitious plans. Our base case assumes earnings per share reaches roughly $13.00, with AWS operating margin holding steady as Trainium-based capacity becomes a larger share of total infrastructure.

At a 23 times multiple, the base target is $299, about 20% above today's price.

The $390 bull case assumes both the Anthropic and OpenAI relationships scale ahead of schedule, with Trainium adoption spreading to more AWS customers beyond its anchor relationship. The $165 bear case assumes one or both AI lab relationships disappoint, whether through slower spending or broader AI industry financing concerns, the same risk flagged throughout this series.

AMZN Stock Price Prediction 2030: A Proof Point for the Three-Way Bet

By 2030, Amazon's strategy of hedging across Anthropic, OpenAI and its own Trainium silicon should have a clear track record, whether that diversification proved wiser than a single concentrated bet or simply spread Amazon's risk across more moving parts without necessarily reducing it. Our base case assumes earnings per share near $18.00, with retail and advertising margins continuing to expand alongside AWS.

At a 21 times multiple, the base target is $378, about 51% above today's price.

The $580 bull case assumes Trainium has become a genuinely credible Nvidia alternative across a broad swath of AWS's customer base by this point. The $210 bear case assumes AWS growth has normalized to a much more modest pace, with the enormous capital spending of 2025 and 2026 looking, in hindsight, to have outrun realized demand.

2031 to 2035: Does Diversification Pay Off?

The back half of our forecast considers what happens if Amazon's bet on spreading AI exposure across two labs and its own chips, rather than concentrating on one partner, proves to be the more durable strategy over a full decade.

The base-case milestones for the back half of our forecast:

• 2031 and 2032 ($420 and $460): Retail operating margin keeps expanding as Amazon's logistics and advertising businesses mature, providing a steadier earnings base beneath AWS's more AI-driven growth, while the dual OpenAI-Anthropic strategy faces its first real test if either lab stumbles.
• 2033 and 2034 ($497 and $532): AWS growth normalizes from its current AI-driven acceleration toward a steadier, still-substantial pace, while retail and advertising margins continue compounding in the background.
• 2035 ($564): An 18.5 times multiple on earnings per share near $30.50, a meaningful normalization from today's elevated level but consistent with a company that has proven its diversified AI strategy across a full cycle.

The $890 bull target for 2035 assumes Amazon's three-way hedge, Anthropic, OpenAI and Trainium, all pay off simultaneously, a scenario that would make Amazon the single best-diversified AI infrastructure bet in this entire series. The $310 bear target assumes the opposite, that spreading bets across three fronts diluted returns relative to a more focused strategy, while still leaving Amazon a highly profitable retail and cloud company.

Bull Case vs. Bear Case: What Could Go Right and What Could Break

These are the clearest catalysts that would push AMZN toward our bull scenarios.

• Bull Catalyst 1, Trainium becomes a credible Nvidia alternative at scale. Anthropic running more than 1 million Trainium2 chips inside Project Rainier is a powerful proof point; broader adoption across AWS's wider customer base would validate Amazon's custom silicon strategy the way this series has seen with other in-house chip efforts.
• Bull Catalyst 2, both the Anthropic and OpenAI relationships scale on schedule. With exposure to two of the industry's largest labs rather than one, Amazon has more paths to AI infrastructure revenue succeeding than a single-bet competitor would.
• Bull Catalyst 3, retail and advertising margins keep improving alongside AWS. Amazon's non-cloud businesses provide a steadier earnings floor that most pure AI infrastructure names in this series don't have, reducing how dependent the whole investment case is on AWS alone.

These are the risks most likely to drag the stock toward our bear scenarios.

• Bear Risk 1, $220 billion in annual capex outruns realized demand. If AWS growth decelerates from today's 37% pace faster than expected, Amazon's capital spending will look oversized in hindsight, pressuring margins and the stock's multiple simultaneously.
• Bear Risk 2, one or both AI lab bets disappoint. Amazon's financial exposure to Anthropic and OpenAI both carries the same AI financing and circular-deal concerns flagged elsewhere in this series; a stumble at either lab would hit Amazon's investment gains and, more importantly, the committed AWS spending tied to each relationship.
• Bear Risk 3, quality of earnings concerns resurface. The Q2 2026 EPS beat being overwhelmingly a paper gain rather than operating performance is a reminder that Amazon's reported earnings can be volatile and sometimes disconnected from the underlying business trajectory investors actually care about.

The Verdict: Who Should Own Amazon, and Who Should Wait

Amazon suits long-horizon investors who want AI infrastructure exposure through the most diversified strategy in this series, spanning cloud rental, equity stakes in two leading AI labs, and in-house chip development, alongside a stable, profitable retail and advertising business underneath it all. That diversification may prove to be a genuine advantage over single-bet competitors.

It is a less obvious fit for investors who want a pure-play, easily understood AI story, given how many moving pieces now drive Amazon's AI-related results, or for anyone who needs dividend income, since Amazon continues to direct all available cash toward growth investment instead. Investors who already hold Microsoft for AI infrastructure exposure should note that Amazon's strategy is meaningfully less concentrated on a single partner.

For sizing, we think 5% to 7% of liquid assets is reasonable for most diversified growth portfolios, reflecting Amazon's combination of AI infrastructure exposure and a stable non-cloud business base, balanced against the complexity of tracking three simultaneous AI bets at once.

Frequently Asked Questions

These are the questions we hear most often about Amazon's AI strategy, its AWS growth and its valuation.

Sources and Reference Materials

The data in this analysis comes from Amazon's SEC filings and earnings materials, cross-checked against reputable financial coverage and market data current at the time of writing.

• Yahoo Finance: What to Expect From Amazon.com's Q3 2026 Earnings Report
• Yahoo Finance: The Dates That Matter Most for Amazon Stock
• The Motley Fool: Amazon Is 11% Below Its High Heading Into Earnings on Oct. 29
• Constellation Research: Anthropic, Amazon Links Tighten, Anthropic to Spend $100 Billion Over 10 Years on AWS Capacity
• SiliconANGLE: Amazon to Invest Up to $25B in Anthropic as Part of Expanded Cloud Partnership
• MoneyMagpie: Amazon Stock Price Prediction and Deep Dive, October 2026

This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Price targets are CoinDecimal model scenarios based on public data available at the time of writing, and actual results may differ materially.