Is ASML a Good Investment? Stock Price Prediction 2027, 2028, 2030–2035

Every advanced chip in the world, the ones inside Nvidia GPUs, Apple processors and AI accelerators alike, passes through a machine only one company makes. ASML is the sole global supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, the tools that etch the smallest features onto modern silicon, which makes it less a competitor in the AI race than a toll booth every serious participant has to pass through.

The table below shows our year-end price scenarios from 2027 through 2035, measured against ASML's recent price of $1,780. Because customer orders at ASML are placed years ahead of delivery, we have more visibility into this company's near-term demand than almost any other stock in this series.

The Business Behind the Monopoly

ASML makes the photolithography machines that print circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, and its extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, systems are the only ones in the world capable of patterning the smallest, most advanced chip features. TSMC, Samsung and Intel all depend on ASML equipment to manufacture anything at the leading edge.

That dependency shows up in how customers buy. Rather than placing standard purchase orders, chipmakers reserve manufacturing windows years ahead, often with down payments, since EUV systems take a long time to build and capacity is limited. Management said on its October call that some customers are now booking into 2029 and 2030, an unusually long visibility window even by this industry's standards.

The business splits into new system sales and Installed Base Management, the service and upgrade revenue earned from machines already in the field. That service revenue, €3.29 billion in the most recent quarter, is lower margin growth but highly predictable, since every EUV system ASML has ever sold keeps generating service revenue for years afterward.

Q3 2026: Record Results, and the Stock Fell Anyway

ASML reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 14, and the headline numbers were the best in company history. Total net sales reached €11.7 billion, near the top of guidance, with net income of €5.0 billion and earnings per share of €12.95, up 136% from a year earlier.

Despite the record quarter, shares fell in the days around the report, a pattern now familiar across this series: strong results that still disappoint a market pricing in near-perfection. Here is what drove both the beat and the muted reaction.

• System sales breakdown: Net system sales reached €8.4 billion, including €4.1 billion from EUV systems, one of which was a High-NA EUV machine, and €4.3 billion from non-EUV systems.
• Margin strength: Gross margin hit 57.5%, above the top of guidance, helped by high-margin installed-base upgrade revenue.
• Guidance raised again: Full-year 2026 total net sales guidance moved up to €44 billion to €45 billion from a prior €43 billion, the third upward revision this year, with fourth-quarter guidance of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion.
• China normalizing lower: China's share of ASML's revenue has fallen to roughly 19% to 20% from a much larger share in 2024 and 2025, as export restrictions limit which systems ASML can sell there, a trend management expects to continue.

Management also confirmed a 10% price increase on replacement parts shipped to South Korea, covering both EUV and DUV systems, effective January 2027, evidence of real pricing power even as the broader AI-stock selloff weighed on sentiment that week.

Is ASML a Good Investment? Three Pillars to Weigh

ASML's case rests on three pillars, each with a real counterweight worth understanding before buying.

• The monopoly moat is close to absolute. No competitor makes EUV lithography systems at any meaningful scale, which gives ASML pricing power most hardware companies never achieve. That moat does not extend to older DUV lithography tools, where Chinese equipment makers are reportedly developing competing immersion systems.
• Demand visibility is unusually long for a hardware company. A backlog that stretches into 2029 and 2030 orders gives ASML more forward demand clarity than almost any peer in this series. The flip side is that lead times this long mean ASML cannot quickly flex capacity if demand suddenly slows.
• Valuation already prices in a lot of continued growth. At roughly 40 times full-year 2026 consensus earnings per share, ASML trades at a rich multiple that assumes the current EUV upcycle, not just continues, but accelerates through High-NA adoption.

The balance sheet supports the long runway ahead. ASML held €12.7 billion in cash and short-term investments at quarter end, generated €11.4 billion in free cash flow in the third quarter alone, and pays a growing dividend, most recently €1.88 per share, payable November 4, 2026, a real yield most AI-infrastructure stocks in this series simply don't offer.

ASML Stock Price Prediction 2027: Living on an Already-Booked Year

Management has said 2027 capacity, after a planned 30% expansion in low-NA EUV and DUV immersion output, is already largely booked. Our base case assumes full-year 2027 revenue grows into the low-to-mid €50 billions, with earnings per share near $52.60 as the January price increases begin flowing through margins.

Applying a 36 times multiple, modestly below today's level, produces a base target of $1,894, about 6% above today's price. That muted upside reflects how much of 2027's growth is already known and priced in, rather than a surprise still to come.

The $2,100 bull case assumes capacity expansion runs ahead of the 30% target and pricing power proves even stronger than guided. The $1,500 bear case assumes a digestion phase after several years of aggressive capital spending across the chip industry, the same risk flagged in this series' Broadcom and TSMC articles, pulls bookings growth down sharply.

ASML Stock Price Prediction 2028: The High-NA EUV Test

Samsung has targeted high-volume manufacturing on High-NA EUV for 2028, making it the first major customer to run the technology at real scale. Our base case assumes earnings per share reaches roughly $64 as High-NA shipments climb from the single-digit unit counts seen in 2026 toward a more meaningful contribution to both revenue and margin.

At a 32 times multiple, the base target reaches $2,048, about 15% above today's price. The $2,500 bull case assumes High-NA adoption accelerates faster than guided and additional capacity comes online smoothly. The $1,350 bear case assumes High-NA adoption disappoints, a real risk since CFO Roger Dassen has said ASML is still in the very initial stages of that ramp.

ASML Stock Price Prediction 2030: TSMC Joins the High-NA Era

TSMC has signaled it plans to adopt High-NA EUV for high-volume manufacturing around 2030, which would mark the point where all three leading-edge foundries, Intel, Samsung and TSMC, are running the technology simultaneously. Our base case assumes earnings per share reaches roughly $88, with service revenue from a much larger installed base of machines providing a steadily growing, lower-volatility layer underneath new system sales.

That supports a base target of $2,376, about 33% above today's price, at a 27 times multiple reflecting a company past its most explosive growth phase. Management's own 2030 target, set in 2024, calls for €44 billion to €60 billion in revenue, a range current bookings already suggest ASML could meet; some analysts model figures well above that, though ASML says a formal update awaits its next capital markets day.

The $3,300 bull case assumes ASML lands toward the high end of those independent estimates. The $1,600 bear case assumes a shift some memory makers are considering, from 6F² to 4F² DRAM cell architecture, reduces the lithography layers needed per chip, a genuine technical risk management has acknowledged on recent calls.

2031 to 2035: Does the Monopoly Compound Forever?

A decade out, the central question for ASML is less about competition, which remains minimal, and more about whether the broader chip industry keeps building capacity at a pace that sustains ASML's growth once the current AI-driven upcycle matures. Our base path assumes growth decelerates from the mid-20s percent range toward low double digits by the mid-2030s.

The base-case milestones for the back half of our forecast break down as follows.

• 2031 and 2032 ($2,450 and $2,592): ASML's 2027 capital markets day should provide refreshed long-term targets, likely above the 2024-era €44 billion to €60 billion range given bookings already running ahead of that guidance.
• 2033 and 2034 ($2,714 and $2,794): Growth settles into a steadier pattern tied to the ongoing DRAM capacity cycle and continued logic node transitions at TSMC, Samsung and Intel.
• 2035 ($2,856): A 21 times multiple on earnings per share near $136, consistent with a mature, monopoly-moat industrial technology company rather than a stock still pricing in acceleration.

The $4,350 bull target for 2035 assumes High-NA EUV becomes as indispensable as standard EUV is today, with ASML capturing the bulk of a growing lithography market across logic and memory alike. The $2,250 bear target assumes chip industry capital spending normalizes to a slower, more cyclical pattern after the current AI-driven boom runs its course.

Bull Case vs. Bear Case: What Could Go Right and What Could Break

These are the clearest catalysts that would push ASML toward our bull scenarios.

• Bull Catalyst 1, orders stretching to 2029 and 2030 convert smoothly. Unusually long demand visibility, if it converts into firm, fulfilled orders rather than soft interest, would support growth well beyond what most hardware companies can forecast with confidence.
• Bull Catalyst 2, High-NA EUV becomes the new standard faster than guided. With Intel having already exposed more than a million wafers using High-NA and Samsung targeting 2028 volume production, broader and faster adoption would support both higher system prices and stronger service revenue for years.
• Bull Catalyst 3, the DRAM capacity cycle stays tight. Persistent memory shortages, the same dynamic driving Micron's results in this series, support continued EUV and DUV tool orders from memory makers expanding capacity.

These are the risks most likely to drag the stock toward our bear scenarios.

• Bear Risk 1, China export restrictions deepen further. China's share of ASML revenue has already fallen sharply, and further tightening of export controls, or the emergence of domestic Chinese lithography alternatives for older nodes, would remove a market ASML cannot easily replace.
• Bear Risk 2, a DRAM architecture shift reduces lithography intensity. The memory industry's potential move from 6F² to 4F² cell architecture could reduce the number of EUV layers needed per chip, a structural rather than cyclical risk to demand.
• Bear Risk 3, a post-boom digestion phase. After several years of raised guidance and record bookings, a pause in chip industry capital spending, the same risk flagged throughout this series, would hit a stock valued for continued acceleration rather than a pause.

The Verdict: Who Should Own ASML, and Who Should Wait

ASML suits long-horizon investors who want AI and chip infrastructure exposure through the single most essential, hardest-to-replace company in the entire semiconductor supply chain, and who value the combination of a real dividend with genuine growth. Few other stocks in this series offer both.

It is a less obvious fit for investors seeking near-term value, since the stock's rich multiple already reflects most of what is publicly known about 2027 and 2028 demand. Anyone who already holds TSMC or other foundry-adjacent names should also weigh how much additional, correlated chip-cycle exposure they actually want.

For sizing, we think 3% to 5% of liquid assets is reasonable for most growth portfolios already comfortable with semiconductor exposure, with the monopoly moat and dividend arguably supporting a slightly larger allocation than some of the more speculative names in this series.

Frequently Asked Questions

These are the questions we hear most often about ASML's monopoly position, its valuation and its long-term outlook.

Sources and Reference Materials

The data in this analysis comes from ASML's SEC filings and earnings materials, cross-checked against reputable financial coverage and market data current at the time of writing.

• SEC EDGAR: ASML Holding NV Third Quarter 2026 Results (Form 6-K)
• SEC EDGAR: ASML Q2 2026 Investor Presentation
• Yahoo Finance: ASML Holding NV Q3 2026 Earnings Call Highlights
• Investing.com: ASML Posts Q3 2026 Profit Beat on Record Demand
• Morningstar: ASML Earnings, Record Bookings Confirm the AI Upcycle Into 2027
• Dealroom: ASML Profit Beats as AI Demand Stretches Orders Into 2030

This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Price targets are CoinDecimal model scenarios based on public data available at the time of writing, and actual results may differ materially.